Read e-book online A Continuous Time Econometric Model of the United Kingdom PDF

By Albert Rex Bergstrom, Khalid Ben Nowman

ISBN-10: 0521875498

ISBN-13: 9780521875493

During the last thirty years there was huge use of constant time econometric tools in macroeconomic modelling. This monograph offers the 1st non-stop time macroeconometric version of the uk incorporating stochastic traits. Its improvement represents a huge breakthrough in non-stop time macroeconomic modelling. The ebook describes the recent version intimately and, like prior types, it's designed in any such approach as to allow a rigorous mathematical research of its steady-state and balance houses, therefore offering a important cost at the capability of the version to generate believable long-run behaviour. The version is anticipated utilizing newly constructed specific Gaussian estimation tools for non-stop time econometric types incorporating unobservable stochastic tendencies. The publication additionally comprises dialogue of the appliance of the version to dynamic research and forecasting.

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Additional resources for A Continuous Time Econometric Model of the United Kingdom with Stochastic Trends

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An interesting feature of the model was that it contained only one exogenous variable a simple time trend. The trend terms were allowed for the unobservable factors: technical progress, the growth of labour supply and growth in demand for exports. The model was based on extensive economic theory and had 35 key parameters, which comprised 16 long-run elasticities and propensities β, 16 speed of adjustment parameters γ and 3 trend parameters λ. 33) Continuous Time Econometric Model of UK with Stochastic Trends E = real exports I = real expenditure on imports S = stocks L = employment M = volume of money r = interest rate p = price level w = wage rate k = proportional rate of increase of fixed capital m = proportional rate of increase in volume of money t = time D = d/dt and 0 < β1 < 1, β4 > −1, 0 < β6 < 1, all other parameters positive (except possibly λ3 ).

Another estimation approach is to use the general Gaussian estimation methods of Bergstrom [1983, 1985, 1986, 1990] and this was first demonstrated by Nowman [1997]. To apply these methods to the discrete model of Phillips [1972] (see also Bergstrom [1984a]), which assumed a constant conditional second moment that is not usually satisfied by financial data, it was necessary to modify the discrete model used in the estimation of the parameters of the continuous time interest rate models. 13) where t − 1 is the largest integer less than t.

They used the Kalman filter (see Harvey [1989]) to estimate one-, two- and three- factor Generalized Vasicek models on US data and found that the two- and three-factor models were able to explain the US yield curve. In Bergstrom and Nowman [1999] they applied Gaussian estimation methods and derived the exact discrete model and the exact Gaussian likelihood function for the Babbs and Nowman [1999] model. More recently, Nowman [2001, 2003, 2006] considered the Gaussian estimation of multi-factor CKLS and CIRSR models and empirical applications on Japanese interest rate data indicated various level effects for the CKLS 30 Introduction to Continuous Time Modelling ˇ [2003] model in the multi-factor cases.

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A Continuous Time Econometric Model of the United Kingdom with Stochastic Trends by Albert Rex Bergstrom, Khalid Ben Nowman


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